Senior figures within English football worry that Manchester City might still feature in next season’s Champions League even if they drop out of the Premier League for financial breaches?
The crux is that a Champions League triumph would hand City a spot as title‑holders, irrespective of their domestic standing.
An independent panel found City guilty of inflating sponsorship revenue by £830 million through sham contracts and hiding another £90 million in expenses.
Had those figures not been fabricated, the club would have failed profit and sustainability tests in every season from 2009‑10 to 2017‑18.
City continues to deny any misconduct, branding the verdict a “Premier League conspiracy” and has lodged an appeal.
No grounds for City to be denied a licence
If the appeal fails and a harsh sanction follows, letting City compete with Europe’s elite and reap the financial rewards would feel unacceptable.
The immediate hurdle is the UEFA licence, a prerequisite for any club to enter European competition.
One source said the licence issue has been raised and a solution would need the kind of coordinated thinking that has so far been missing.
Licences are issued by the FA, though the Premier League handles the actual process.
They rely on current data and do not factor in sanctions for past breaches.
When a club meets all minimum admission criteria, the licence cannot be denied.
Grounds for refusal usually involve overdue payables to other clubs, players, or tax authorities.
Recent match‑fixing convictions or multi‑club ownership conflicts are assessed but would not apply to City.
A source added that licences are awarded based on present financial health, making refusal grounds unclear.
If the appeal board upholds the verdict, City could face points deductions, hefty fines and transfer bans.
The sanction‑hearing that will set the punishment level has yet to be scheduled.
A points drop might block league‑based qualification, yet cup victories could still secure European spots.
Immediate expulsion from the Premier League remains on the table as an option.
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Senior figures both in the English game and in European football are aware of how bad the optics would be if City face strong sanctions yet still play in the Champions League. In my view, the image is disastrous.
It is exacerbated by doubts that the whole process – including an appeal against the sanction – is not guaranteed to be completed by the end of the season.
The Premier League added new clauses to its regulations to set time frames around disciplinary processes and appeals in the summer.
If applicable, this would mean a judgement on the sanction must come no later than January. But there is no confirmation this applies to the City case.
It is not just about City winning the Champions League, however. If they were to win the FA Cup or Carabao Cup – they play Brighton in the fourth round on 28 October – that would provide a place in the Europa League or the Conference League respectively.
European football’s governing body cannot take any action while the Premier League disciplinary process plays out, but it is understood that potential scenarios are likely to be discussed by the UEFA administration and the UEFA club financial control body (CFCB).
The Premier League case found City guilty of five charges of breaching UEFA’s profit and sustainability rules.
UEFA may open a case in accordance with the disciplinary regulations to find a way to remove City’s eligibility.
But this does not provide certainty as City’s offences are historical.
In 2020, City successfully overturned their two‑year ban from European club competitions handed down by UEFA.
UEFA issued the ban after ruling City had committed “serious breaches” of financial fair play regulations between 2012 and 2016 – the same period as the Premier League’s investigation.
But the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) overturned the ban because the offences were “time‑barred” under UEFA’s rules.
If City are not successful in their appeal and win the Champions League, the CFCB will have to find a disciplinary measure to remove the club from next season’s competition.
Yet with City already having won against UEFA through CAS once before, there is the concern they could do so again.
There will also be a Champions League Match of the Day on BBC One on Wednesday, from 22:40 to 00:00.