Premier League relegation fight: Who could fall and when?

The Premier League title has been reduced to a three-horse race, with the same number of teams left battling at the bottom of the table.

A club they have long been adrift and, with 16 points from 34 games, Sheffield United’s immediate return to the Championship is a question of when, not if.

Above them, Burnley and Luton Town look set to follow them into the second division, but a mini-renaissance in recent weeks for the former and a season-long fighting spirit from the latter have kept their fleeting hopes alive.

Here we analyze who can be demoted and when.

Pos	Squad	GP	GD	PTS
16	Everton	34	-12	33
17	Nottingham Forest	34	-18	26
18	Luton City	34	-28	25
19	Burnley	34	-32	23
20	Sheffield United	34	-59	16

When can Sheffield United be relegated?

The defeat against Manchester United on Wednesday night is over Sheffield United one match away from returning to the championship.

If they lose away to Newcastle United on Saturday, their fate will be sealed regardless of results elsewhere.

Sheffield United lose at Old Trafford (Matt McNulty/Getty Images)

Chris Wilder’s team are playing for pride (and only pride) at this stage, as even a run of four consecutive victories at the end of the season is unlikely to save them.

While they won’t set the record for the worst score in Premier League history (Derby County’s 11 points in 2007-08), Sheffield United did set the record for most goals conceded in a Premier League season with 38 matches. The four goals conceded at Old Trafford took their tally to 92 – that infamous Derby team managed just 89.

• The latest Premier League table

They won’t be welcomed with open arms by the EFL either, as a two-point deduction awaits them upon their return to the second division.

Which clubs are safe?

If 18th-placed Luton win their remaining four games they will accumulate 37 points.

This means that all Crystal Palace teams from 14th place and above are mathematically safe. 15th-placed Brentford are almost certainly safe but three points will secure their top-flight status.

Luton are unlikely to get all 12 points, but only one of their last four games is against a top-half team, so a return of seven or eight points is far from unlikely.

What about Everton, Forest, Luton and Burnley?

This is where the real danger lies.

Here’s how Opta sees each team’s chances of survival.

Pos	Squad	Survival	Relegation
16	Everton	99.9%	0.1%
17	Nottingham Forest	64.2%	35.8%
18	Luton City	28.3%	71.7%
19	Burnley	7.5%	92.5%

The controversial 2-0 win against Nottingham Forest and the famous victory in the Merseyside derby on Wednesday night touched Everton safety at your fingertips.

Where forest they are worried, Sunday’s defeat – which left a bad taste in their mouths as they feel denied three penalties against a direct relegation rival – has left them one point and one place above the relegation zone.

They face Manchester City on Sunday, so they could end the weekend in the bottom three. Although, for now, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have their fate in their hands and, as long as they manage to keep Luton and Burnley at bay, they will be safe.

Luton, meanwhile, need a two-point swing in their favor to overhaul Forest. Back-to-back 5-1 defeats, against City and Brentford, severely dented their goal difference tally.

Consecutive 5-1 defeats – against Manchester City and Brentford – dented Luton’s survival hopes (Richard Pelham/Getty Images)

As for Burnley, they need to leapfrog two of the teams above them to stay in the Premier League. Their most likely route to survival would be to take three points more than Luton in the remaining games of their run forward (all while improving their goal differences) and four points more than Forest.

It seems like a tall order for Vincent Kompany’s side, but they are the in-form team in the relegation zone having lost just one of their last seven games.

Relegation Battle Form Table

Pos	Squad	GP	GD	PTS
1	Burnley	6	+3	9
2	Nottingham Forest	6	-2	7
3	Luton City	6	-10	4

The remaining matches involving these three teams look like this:

Day 35

• Manchester United vs Burnley
• Nottingham Forest against Manchester City
• Wolves against Luton

Day 36

• Burnley against Newcastle
• Luton against Everton
• Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest

Day 37

• Nottingham Forest against Chelsea
• Tottenham vs Burnley
• West Ham v Luton

Day 38

• Burnley against Nottingham Forest
• Luton against Fulham

…and point deductions and appeals?

Ah yes, the elephant in the room.

What has long seemed like a completely avoidable situation will likely still have a big say in the relegation battle.

Everton suffered two separate points deductions – one reduced from 10 points to six and another two-point deduction which is under appeal.

Nottingham Forest are also awaiting the outcome of an appeal over their own four-point deduction. The appeal hearing began on Wednesday, although it is unclear when the final decision will be made.

Premier League guidelines state that appeal processes must be completed by May 24, five days after the final day of the season. The league’s intention is to conclude both appeals before the final round of matches, but there is no guarantee this will happen.

So, off-field decisions may have as much say in the relegation battle as on-pitch issues, which is hardly a glowing endorsement for what many consider to be the best league in the world.

(Top photo: Getty Images)