Five games in and the table looks set, yet many still doubt its significance. Is it really too soon to worry?
Even if City and Arsenal finish first and second – barring any points deductions – can Brentford snag Europe, keep Hull up and see Tottenham in another relegation scrap? History says it’s plausible.
One huge asterisk looms over the standings after Manchester City were found guilty of most Premier League charges levied against them.
The league leaders have appealed; if the verdict stands, sanctions could reshape the table, but for now we must work with the current rankings.
Looking back, after five games last season 13 of the 20 clubs were within four places of where they eventually finished – that’s 65 %.
Champions‑to‑be Arsenal sat second, Sunderland were already seventh, and two of the three relegated sides were in the bottom three.
Aston Villa and Tottenham essentially swapped extremes, with Villa climbing from the bottom three to a top‑four finish while Spurs slipped to 17th.
Across the last decade, more than two‑thirds of teams ended the season within four spots of their five‑game position – 138 of 200 – and 27 stayed exactly where they were after 33 games.
Another 50 clubs finished five to nine places away, meaning only 12 moved double digits later, three of them from last season.
The top spot is the least stable; only one of the last six leaders won the title – Manchester City in 2023‑24 – and just three champions emerged from five‑game leads in the past 11 seasons.
City’s perfect start isn’t a guarantee; they also began 5‑0 under Pellegrini in 2015‑16 and Guardiola in 2016‑17 without clinching the crown either time.
Chelsea in 2018‑19, Arsenal in 2022‑23 and Liverpool last term also led with 100 % wins, yet finished far short of glory.
In my view, the title will still be decided between City and Arsenal, even if sanctions intervene. The last non‑top‑two champion was City in 2021‑22, who were fifth after five games.
Sometimes the upper half settles fast. The 2024‑25 top eight after five games mirrored the final top eight, and the 2019‑20 top six and 2016‑17 top seven were already in place early on.
While a five‑game lead means little, sitting at the bottom has proven ominous.
Tottenham, after narrowly avoiding relegation twice, could be in trouble again – the bottom‑placed side after five games has dropped in six of the last seven seasons.
Being bottom used to be less damning; between 2013‑14 and 2018‑19 only Newcastle in 2015‑16 went down, while Crystal Palace rose to 11th in 2017‑18.
Good news for Spurs fans: the last time they were bottom with two points in 2008‑09, a managerial change saw them finish in the top half.
Broadly, at least one bottom‑three team each season has been relegated in the past eight years, so one of Tottenham, Fulham or Coventry will likely head for the Championship.
The relegation pool may already be set – the three teams that went down in the past three seasons were all in the bottom six after five games, adding Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to the mix.
The most recent outsiders of the bottom six who later fell were Leeds and Southampton in 2022‑23; Hull and Ipswich, now 8th and 11th, hope to avoid the same fate.
Even with the season barely started, the table is already taking shape.