Can the Rays’ ace Drew Rasmussen silence Cleveland’s Guardians in Game 1? Tampa hosts the top seed, with the series kicking off tomorrow at 7 p.m. CT.
Both clubs lean on strong arms, yet Tampa arrives rested after sweeping New York in three. Cleveland survived a chaotic ALDS, with Parker Messick and Gavin Williams each logging two starts; Williams even closed Game 4 before delivering 5 2/3 dominant innings and 12 strikeouts in Game 5.
Messick tossed just 65 pitches in his uneven Game 4 outing, leaving open the chance of short rest for the ALCS opener, though a full break for Game 2 seems more likely. Williams returns on regular rest for Game 3, while Cleveland still needs starters for Games 1 and 4. Foster Griffin and Joey Cantillo logged eight and five outs in Game 3, and Tanner Bibee recorded a single out in Game 4; all three remain viable for an opening start, with Griffin and Cantillo fully rested.
For my money, Rasmussen gives Tampa the edge as he heads into the series with a 2.67 ERA and a 5.0 fWAR, trailing only Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease in the league. The Rays will pair him with Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez. Rasmussen posted a 2.67 ERA over 30 starts, a 21.2% K‑BB rate and a 43.9% ground‑ball rate, earning 5.0 wins above replacement. Messick sits just behind with 4.9 fWAR.
Peralta and Martinez aren’t on Rasmussen’s tier but remain solid for Games 2 and 3. After a rough first two‑thirds of the season, Peralta rebounded post‑trade, posting a 3.25 ERA in 55 1/3 innings and delivering 4 2/3 innings of one‑run ball in ALDS Game 2. Martinez slipped in Game 3 yet logged a strong regular season, pitching 180 innings with a 3.10 ERA and a league‑best 3.6% walk rate among qualified starters; Rasmussen ranked second at 4.8%.
Cleveland’s bullpen may have a slight edge, thanks to dominant outings from Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis. Tampa counters with Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly in the late innings. Ultimately, offense decides the series. The Rays posted a team‑wide 104 wRC+ in the regular season, tying for fifth in the majors, while the Guardians lagged at 97. Junior Caminero belted 42 homers and sits in the AL MVP top‑5. Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda were 23‑25% above average, and Chandler Simpson hit over .300 while leading the majors with 46 steals.
Cleveland’s top qualified hitters were Chase DeLauter (131 wRC+), Steven Kwan (114) and Travis Bazzana (110). José Ramírez struggled early but surged in the ALDS. Overall, the Guardians out‑hit the Rays in their five‑game series, bolstered by Ramírez, Patrick Bailey and Jo Adell, and a 14.3% walk rate that boosted on‑base chances. By contrast, Tampa walked just 4.9%, posting a .255 OBP. If the Guardians can sustain their plate discipline, they could clinch the series.
Photos by David Dermer and Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images.