Minnesota Twins Offseason Outlook

By some metrics, Minnesota exceeded expectations, staying in the hunt for much of the first half before the AL’s overall mediocrity lifted them. They closed at 77‑85, matching preseason forecasts, yet winter hints at far more activity.

• Byron Buxton, OF: $30 MM through 2028 (up to $10.5 MM in incentives for plate appearances and MVP voting)
• Pablo López, RHP: $21.5 MM through 2027
• Victor Caratini, C: $10 MM through 2027 (includes $3.5 MM buyout of 2028 mutual option)
• Jeff Hoffman, RHP: $7.25 MM through 2027 (Blue Jays cover $3.75 MM of his $11 MM salary)

• $20 MM owed to Astros ($10 MM in 2027, $10 MM in 2028) from the 2025 Carlos Correa trade
• $25 K buyout on 2027 mutual option for Justin Topa (released in May)

Total 2027 commitments: $60.275MM
Total long‑term commitments through 2028: $88.775MM

• Joe Ryan, RHP: $13 MM mutual option with $100 K buyout (remains arbitration‑eligible if declined)
• Josh Bell, 1B/DH: $10 MM mutual option with $1.25 MM buyout

Arbitration‑eligible players (service time in parentheses; salary projections by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz)

The upcoming 2026‑27 offseason will feel entirely different. After a 2025 deadline purge that shipped 11 players, the Pohlad family shifted from a potential sale to adding new minority owners. Fans wondered if the teardown would continue with deals involving Joe Ryan, Pablo López and even Byron Buxton.

A year on, the ownership group enjoys fresh stability and a new control person. Tom Pohlad replaced his brother Joe at the helm, while long‑time baseball‑ops chief Derek Falvey exited in January, following GM Thad Levine’s departure a year earlier. Assistant GM Daniel Adler also left, and the club will seek a new pitching coach after parting with Pete Maki.

The turnover is dizzying, but it hands the reins to Jeremy Zoll, a former Dodgers executive now GM. Replacing Maki and assistant Luis Ramirez tops the to‑do list. With so many senior figures gone, new faces may appear in baseball operations, though no assistant GM has been publicly targeted yet.

Once early moves settle, Zoll’s crew will reshape a roster already in transition. The Twins appear set for a much more aggressive winter than recent years, as Tom Pohlad—more vocal than his predecessors—has repeatedly promised to boost payroll and win back a disgruntled fanbase.

Upping payroll above 2026 levels should be easy. In 2023 the club hit a franchise‑record near $155 MM, reaching the postseason and winning a Wild Card game before falling to Houston in the ALDS. Those good vibes faded as ownership trimmed the payroll each year, dropping to roughly $105 MM at Opening Day last season.

Although Tom Pohlad talks about raising payroll, he hasn’t said if it will return to 2023 heights. He’s placed confidence in Zoll’s decision‑making and pledged full support. That leaves room for interpretation, but it’s encouraging that the new Pohlad signals modest increases won’t suffice.

To gauge possibilities, note the Twins owe $53.75 MM to Byron Buxton, Pablo López, Jeff Hoffman and Victor Caratini in 2027, plus $10 MM to Carlos Correa from the 2025 deadline trade. A sizable arbitration class, led by Ryan’s final eligibility, also includes several non‑tender or trade candidates. Roughly $87 MM is tied up with nine players, plus league‑minimum contracts to fill the roster.

There’s breathing room between that sum and the $105 MM Opening‑Day payroll, before even considering trade scenarios we’ll explore soon. If Pohlad feels comfortable inflating the payroll dramatically, Minnesota could launch its most aggressive offseason since the Correa signings. Where will that cash flow?