Matt Swartz built a model that forecasts arbitration‑eligible salaries, a tool MLB Trade Rumors has shared for more than ten years.
Because teams and agents normally hand‑pick comparables, projecting the whole class would be a herculean task. Swartz’s algorithm instead crunches playing time, position, role and stats, adjusting for inflation. It weighs comparable performance without picking specific peers for each player.
We view these numbers as a broad gauge, not a verdict on any individual. If a player lands above or below the estimate, it doesn’t signal success or failure. The projections simply help fans gauge a club’s payroll outlook.
Service‑time figures remain tentative and the Super Two threshold isn’t official yet. We’ll update this post when data changes. Ethan Hullihen of MLBTR recently pegged the line at 2 years, 134 days (2.134) and now lists it at 2.133. If that holds, both Tyron Guerrero and Jordan Beck would just clear the cutoff.
Contracts signed before the non‑tender deadline rarely serve as standard arbitration comps. Early deals can be distorted by lowball offers to borderline candidates, effectively forcing a non‑tender. While not universal, this pattern shows up often.
More clubs now negotiate one‑year contracts with club or mutual options for an extra arbitration year. We’ve flagged every player holding a 2025 option under a prior deal. Should a team buy out that option, the player isn’t a free agent; he receives the agreed buyout and re‑enters arbitration this winter.
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The forecasts: