Which Premier League sides have truly begun?
Last season Liverpool rode a perfect five‑game streak to the summit, while Tottenham sat third. Their eventual finishes—fifth and 17th—prove early tables can be misleading.
Stats from such a tiny sample should be taken with caution, especially since some clubs faced tougher openings. Still, they hint at how the campaign may shape up.
Expected goals (xG) measures dominance by tallying shot quantity and quality on both ends. It gauges overall performance before finishes, saves and luck intervene.
History tells us that teams that control play tend to accumulate more points as the season wears on.
Penalties skew the picture, so excluding them avoids overstating attacking or defensive prowess at this nascent stage.
Champions Arsenal endured their worst loss in three years at Brighton, yet xG still crowns them the season’s top side overall.
Leaders Manchester City sit a whisker behind Arsenal in game dominance, while Brentford’s unbeaten run feels more skill than fortune.
Manchester United swing wildly between feast and famine, though they’ve merely been average. For my money, their low xG rank masks a decent underlying level.
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth also outshine their modest table spots, according to the numbers.
At the opposite end, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have lagged in overall performance, Newcastle’s dip being the most startling given its top‑half standing.
It’s still early, so panic isn’t warranted, but the gap highlights room for growth—Villa proved that by climbing to fourth after a slow start last term.
Looking ahead, Brighton boasts the strongest attack by chance creation, trailed by Manchester City, Brentford and United.
Even though Arsenal’s defence draws more praise, eight clubs sit above them in xG, with Liverpool and Chelsea lingering around mid‑table.
Brighton not only tops xG but also converts efficiently, netting 15 non‑penalty goals from a 10.7 xG tally.
The only side sharper than the Seagulls are their fellow birds, Newcastle, who paradoxically sit at the league’s lowest xG mark.
Newcastle have doubled their expected tally, scoring nine from 4.5 xG, yet Jaissle will likely demand more chances rather than rely on clinical finishes.
Conversely, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have each fallen three goals short of what their chances suggest.
Will these teams sort out their finishing woes, or will luck simply swing their way as the season unfolds?
As noted, Arsenal’s defensive record remains unrivaled, even when accounting for their heavy Brighton loss.
Forest boss Oliver Glasner must spark his attack, but he’s already built a solid defensive base, much like Andoni Iraola at Liverpool.
Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have left too many gaps, though Xabi Alonso’s side isn’t as dire as the 12 goals conceded imply.
Brighton’s offensive flair comes at a defensive cost; Hurzeler’s side has been lucky not to concede more.
Everton and Leeds have both let in three fewer goals than expected, reinforcing their strong defensive credentials.
Only five fixtures in, it’s premature to lock in predictions, yet the underlying metrics hint at an intriguing season ahead.