Arsenal have two major flaws
Opta had Arsenal as the third‑most likely champions before the season even began. A win at Brighton and Chelsea’s draw with Aston Villa briefly lifted Renée Slegers’ side to narrow favourite status. Yet the next four matches yielded just two points, crushing their title bid. Can Arsenal turn the tide before the season ends?
The slump mirrors a lingering issue from last year. Our pre‑season preview flagged draws that should have been wins based on expected goals. This season the pattern persists, with Arsenal posting positive xG margins of 2.2 at Crystal Palace (0‑0) and 1.2 at Manchester United (1‑1).
If Smilla Holmberg hadn’t struck with her sole shot of the campaign in the 95th minute against United, Arsenal’s woes would look even bleaker. The lack of firepower is collective: only Lisa Baum and Alessia Russo have found the net, the latter 1.28 goals shy of her xG. A three‑goal burst during the international break could revive Russo’s confidence.
Gradient Sports rates players on an athleticism score that blends stamina, explosiveness and context. Of the 125 WSL athletes with a score and at least 270 minutes, Steph Catley ranks 31st – Arsenal’s only player inside the top 50. Every other club boasts at least two top‑50 athletes; Chelsea has five and West Ham seven. In my view, Arsenal’s physical deficit is a glaring weakness that fans can’t ignore.
Brighton are ones to watch
Opta projected Brighton to finish seventh, and their current ninth place seems to validate that. Yet the underlying data paints a different picture: they sit just 0.1 expected points behind City, deserving a third‑place claim. Their 1‑1 draw with Villa featured a staggering 3.17 expected goals to 0.03, only to be denied by Lynn Wilms’s 89th‑minute strike.
Brighton also held Birmingham to a draw while enjoying a 1.5 expected‑goals edge, and they squandered four big chances in a 2‑0 loss to London City Lionesses. If they can convert dominance into points, matching or exceeding their 2024‑25 fifth‑place finish is well within reach.
Birmingham shares the league lead with Tottenham for most goals from high‑turnover situations, each with three, while Crystal Palace trails with two. All three goals were netted by Océane Hurtré, thrusting her into a joint‑first spot in the Golden Boot race with five strikes.
The 22‑year‑old French forward sparked two of those high‑turnover scores, including one against Manchester City. Her other goals arrived in the first and eighth minutes against Palace and Brighton, underscoring how early pressing can reap quick rewards.