Mercedes has surged under the 2026 rules, yet while rookie Kimi Antonelli could mathematically clinch his driver’s crown this Sunday in Austin, the team must wait longer for the constructors’ prize. Will they finally lock it down?
The earliest Mercedes could seal the title is at the Mexican Grand Prix, provided they stretch the Austin lead. They sit on 578 points, 134 ahead of Ferrari. With six races remaining, McLaren and Red Bull mathematically remain in contention, though it’s highly unlikely.
From now on a weekend can yield at most 43 points, with the final sprint slated for Singapore. That leaves 258 points for the rest of the season. After Austin, 215 points stay up for grabs, so even a 1‑2 finish for Mercedes while Ferrari scores zero would only push the gap to 177. Texas simply can’t decide it.
November’s Mexican race offers Mercedes its first realistic chance to clinch. Four races follow, totalling 172 points, meaning the team must hold a 172‑point cushion, or outscore Ferrari by 38 points across Austin and Mexico.
Even a tie would favour Mercedes, boasting eleven race wins versus Ferrari’s two. For my money, the tie‑breaker clearly favors Mercedes.
Two Mercedes 1‑2s combined with Ferrari earning no more than 48 points over the two weekends would hand the title. Realistically, São Paulo on 8 November looks more likely; with 129 points left after Brazil, a 129‑point lead would secure the championship.
A victory in Las Vegas would require an 86‑point advantage, while Qatar at November’s end would need just a 43‑point lead.
Both Qatar and Abu Dhabi remain uncertain amid Middle‑East tensions, so the points pool could shrink if either race is cancelled. Imola has been floated as a possible substitute.
A ninth constructors’ crown would draw Mercedes level with Williams at nine, still behind Ferrari and McLaren. The previous eight arrived consecutively from 2014 to 2021.
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– The Team