2) Can the Bills defense rise to the challenge?
Since 2020, no team in the NFL has given up more rushing yards and touchdowns to Mahomes than the Buffalo Bills — his ability to make plays with his feet is Buffalo’s Achilles heel. This is especially concerning for a Bills run defense that is currently averaging 150.3 rushing yards against them per game this year, which ranks 31st. Add in the fact that they just lost a key player in DT Ed Oliver and the picture only gets worse. However, where they falter in the run game, they make up for it in the secondary. This Bills unit ranks second in passing yards allowed per game (161.9), second in touchdowns allowed (7), fifth in EPA per pass allowed (-0.16), and second in yards per catch allowed (-22). To win here, this group will need to keep Mahomes’ feet in the pocket and force him to throw into tight coverage.
3) Will the reigning MVP continue his regular season dominance against the Chiefs?
Allen hasn’t lost to the Chiefs in the regular season since his first game against them in 2020. Still, four of five NFL.com analysts picked the Chiefs as this week’s tilt winner. Despite the Bills 5-2 record, their WR room needs help. Their top target is Khalil Shakir, who ranks 44th among pass catchers in yards per game; Their No. 2 target, Dalton Kincaid, ranks 58th in that category. Their north star this year has been their running game; James Cook anchors the offense and leads the league in rushing yards beyond expectations (+225), while Allen has bettered his running mate with five rushing yards on Sunday. Buffalo’s offense will need to lean heavily on this advantage to keep their streak alive.
The Bills have many of the necessary tools to win this game — clutch genes being one of them — but they face a big task: The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL with a top-five offense and defense. They have already worked for themselves at home.