Good morning! Barehand a home run today. Coming up:
- 🏈 An NFL preview, with a new stat
- 🫥 A contender nearly goes down
- 🧢 MLB hat scandal continues
Ole Miss and Notre Dame entered this college football season full of legitimate hope. The Rebels, coming off the best season in school history, have their Heisman-candidate quarterback. The Fighting Irish are a trendy pick to make a deep Playoff run.
Both had some first-game jitters last night. We’ll start with the worse case, out of the SEC:
- No. 9 Ole Miss needed a last-second field goal to beat No. 24 Louisville 41-38 in a game I have no idea how to evaluate. Were the offenses great, and the quarterbacks electric? Yes. Were the defenses troubling, at best, for both of these teams? Also yes.
- On the other hand, No. 4 Notre Dame entered halftime with just a 13-10 lead on unranked Wisconsin. It was easy for paranoia to set in, as we’ve seen the Irish lose early in each of the last two seasons. Then Notre Dame finished the game on a 28-3 run. That’ll do.
Let’s move on to the other football starting this week:
Over the last few weeks, we’ve said some version of “football’s back” far too many times. Sue me for getting excited. But this week, it finally, fully, feels true.
After two weeks of real college football games, the NFL returns this week, and sooner than you think. We’re doing five quick thoughts on the looming season with help from some friends:
1. Yes, the season starts on a Wednesday. The NFL has colonized plenty of the fall schedule already, creeping further into other sports’ territories in the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday windows. Now, in Week 1 of 2026, the season starts the day after tomorrow, with another game Thursday before everyone else plays Sunday.
2. The favorites are? We should probably talk about that first before getting into takes. The Rams are the clear betting favorites, with the Bills, Ravens and Seahawks close behind. I have no quibbles there, especially since no one has played a game. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are your leading MVP candidates.
💬 Charles: “You know I can’t get out of here without some love for my guy, Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Atlanta head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees were able to get the most of Cleveland’s backs last year — I think Robinson is in store for an all-time season this year (please just don’t watch the rest of the team).”
💬 Max: “Jets rookie Kenyon Sadiq will pop and become one of the best fantasy tight ends on the market.”
We also have bold predictions for every single team, freshly published today. See where your team lands
4. Wait, let’s back up. I want to talk quarterbacks. Great! I have two fun items. First, I went back to Max, a former quarterback at USC and Pittsburgh, and asked which NFL QB will surprise us this year:
💬 “Kyler Murray. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has done the resurrection before, and Kyler has played better than Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold at this point prior to getting to Minnesota.”
Interestingly enough, our Austin Mock debuted a new QB metric this morning, called Quarterback Index or QBI. It’s a complicated formula that sets “average” QB play at 100, which draws inspiration from some of baseball’s advanced statistics. So, in QBI, above 100 means an above-average player, under it is below average, etc. Last year’s top three QBs, per QBI:
- Burrow – 132
- Matthew Stafford – 125
- Brock Purdy – 125
5. There’s just so much to watch. What am I missing? I went back to Charles to finish us out:
💬 “I think the Detroit Lions could be the most fun team to watch in the league this season for neutral audiences. They had a tough choice to make when they took Clemson offensive tackle Blake Miller with the 17th pick in the draft this year, but resetting the talent level on their offensive line should give them a high floor to score points this season. The pass rush might be a little lacking, which will certainly make defense a bit more challenging, but high-octane offense with a mediocre defense is always a blast to follow during the season.”
Go Lions? At least on the watch guide.
Let’s keep moving:
News to Know
WMU: Big Ten blamed ‘discrepancy’
Western Michigan president Russ Kavalhuna said yesterday that, in a conversation with Big Ten officials late after Saturday’s football loss to Michigan, the conference blamed a “known discrepancy” between the replay clock and NBC’s game clock and that there is little to be done about the ongoing controversy. There is no way for WMU to appeal what it, and many others, believe was a signature upset win before the clock brouhaha. See the backstory here.
- Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani could return to the lineup tonight, though he probably won’t pitch again this season. Interesting.
- Yikes: Yankees starter Gerrit Cole gave up back-to-back-to-back homers to his first three batters yesterday. Whoops.
- Meanwhile, Red Sox closer Aroldis Chapman became the ninth pitcher in MLB history to record 400 saves. It’s an impressive list.
- NFL commissioner Roger Goodell signed a contract extension through the 2030 season. He’s likely the highest-paid employee in the entire league.
- A buzzy women’s college volleyball event at Wrigley Field was cut short last night because of moisture on the court. It was a scene.
📰 Find more news here 24/7.
Watch Guide
📺 Tennis: U.S. Open fourth round
11 a.m.-8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN2
It’s the final day of the fourth round, with quarterfinal spots slipping away. Top men’s seed Alexander Zverev is in action, while Coco Gauff, Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina all play on the women’s side. The tourney has been good.
📺 FIBA Women’s World Cup: Team USA vs. Czechia
2:45 p.m. ET on TNT and TruTV
The Americans are 2-0 in this tournament, and the Czechs are 0-2. This is probably a blowout, but you never know. Good midday TV if you have time.
📺 MLB: Cardinals at Giants
8:10 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock
I’m curious to watch St. Louis here, mostly, as it’s still moving forward from the strange hat controversy from Friday. Maybe it propels them in a crowded race for the final NL wild-card spot.
Pulse Picks
Our NFL Hope-O-Meter is back for Week 1. The Rams and Browns bookending the results isn’t a surprise, but there’s intrigue in the middle, and reading your responses is always a delight. Dig in here.
Candace Buckner’s column about what the WNBA needs in a new commissioner was really strong. Simply, the new hire must be everything to everyone.
I appreciated this historical context from Scott Dochterman, who, in light of Saturday’s Michigan-WMU game, rattled off 10 of the most controversial finishes in college football history.
College football fans will have to get familiar with a new statistic this season: Heat Index. The reasons behind the sport’s record-breaking heatwave to start the year are more layered than you might think.
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Our story on the Little League coach’s relatable advice to his team.
Most-read on the website yesterday: The explainer on why Michigan got that one extra second.