Every sport needs a currency, some basic statistics to keep track of the important things that happen along the way to scoring and winning. A good currency should be easy to count and have an obvious connection to the goal of the game.
The currency of baseball is… (points to a nervous Jonah Hill) … get to a station.
American football uses yards, a direct measurement of how far the ball moves toward the end of the field where a score is scored.
For most of its history, soccer only bothered to follow what happens at the end of the game: goals and eventually shots and assists. This kind of currency works pretty well in basketball, where everyone is shooting all the time, but not so well in a sport where only a few players take shots and your team might score twice on a good day.
In recent years, finally, a more usable type of football statistic has started to catch on: forward passes, passes and receptions. Like yards in American football, these measure the ball’s progress from your goal and toward the other team’s goal, which is the basic idea behind all offensive sports.
Progressive functions are not advanced metrics. You can see them with your eyes instead of a statistical model. If you were bored enough, you could sit in the arena and count them up in Sharpie on the bald seaters. But as simple as they are, progressive actions are fundamental to how the game works and can give you a pretty good idea of which teams and players are good at it.
Ball progression statistics are the natural currency of football – our sport’s understated version of yardage or bases.
One problem with making them part of football’s standard lexicon is that the meaning of “progressive” can be slippery. Progressive contribution Wyscout is not quite the same as one on FBref, with new definitions multiplying like dozens of different charging cables you keep tangled in a drawer somewhere. All definitions agree on just one thing: forward action somehow moves the ball forward.
At Athletic, we count a completed pass as “progressive” if it is at least 10 meters long and moves the ball at least 25 percent of the remaining distance to the goal. This definition has several advantages.
By using the distance achieved towards the center of the goal instead of the vertical distance towards the goal line, we are less likely to consider an unhelpful pass towards the corner flag as forward and more likely to reward a diagonal or lateral pass that moves the ball. in a better shooting position. Even a cut that goes from the goal line to a player in front of the penalty area could be progressive.
The purpose of measuring forward action as a percentage instead of a specific number of yards is that it scales naturally as the ball moves up and down the field. When Virgil Van Dijk plays a forward pass that gets 25 percent of the remaining distance to goal from the defensive third, it has to go a lot further than Bruno Fernandes who gets 25 percent of a much smaller distance from the top. of the box, even though both shipments are progressive by the same definition.
Thanks to the scalable 25 percent rule, players in different positions have roughly equal opportunities to play forward passes through the lines as defenses expand to press high and shrink to defend their goal. See how Van Dijk and Bruno’s very different passes break every line of defense and take out four opponents? There’s a reason why lists of the top offensive passers tend to resemble leaderboards for disruptive metrics like line-breaking passes or “packs” that count past defenders. Making progress toward a goal means defeating the defense.
That relationship with foul lines is the main reason for setting the limit for progressive passes at 25 percent. It’s not really true that a pass that goes 25 percent of the way to goal is the same as five passes that each go 5 percent, because short passes played in front of the lines allow the defense to adjust. We only want to count dangerous passes that make the opponent shake up.
But enough talking. Let’s see some numbers.
The list of top forward passers is heavy on centre-backs, mainly because centre-backs play more passes than anyone else. But at the top of the list is also a central midfielder, a right back who sometimes plays in defense and a goalkeeper. If we look at the type of forward passes these players complete, we see a variety of long balls and slants out the back, line-breaking passes in the middle of the pitch, and crosses and through balls into the box. There are clearly many ways to get the ball forward and disrupt the defence.
Another way to visualize the progressive passing leaders is by zone, listing who passes the ball the most from each part of the field. Van Dijk and Rodri square off in exactly the areas you’d expect. So do Saka and Odegaard, who did their little shifts in the corner for Arsenal. The biggest surprise might be Jordan Pickford, who is England’s leading forward passer, not only in the box but also in front of it – in open play! — thanks to the miracles of the Dyche ball.
We tend to think of ball progression as something the player on the ball does, but the receiver is just as important – without good movement off the ball there would be no one to pass to. If we count forward passes by those who reach their end, we get forward receptions, another useful statistic.
Here, the top scorers are mostly strikers, who spend almost all their time finding space to receive forward passes. If you’re Luton Town’s Carlton Morris, that means a lot of goalkeeping work trying to help your team get out of their own half. If you’re Erling Haaland, you’re crushing centre-backs to smithereens to finish forward passes in front of goal (if you think about it, expected goals are basically another form of forward reception stat). For a guy like Ollie Watkins, who is heavily involved in both the structure and the box, the forward receiving numbers are off the charts.
The third and final type of forward action is action, and here we use a different threshold—only 15 percent of the remaining distance to goal rather than 25. Unlike passes, it is almost impossible by definition for a ball carrier to break lines without touching and beat someone off the dribble first (which ends the carry). To disrupt the defense with a carry, therefore, you only need to go far enough to attract defenders to the ball, which is what the 15 percent threshold is intended to approach.
The forward leaders are mostly wingers, because 15 percent of the distance to goal isn’t very far when you’re in the final third, and many defenders prefer to sit off players like Alejandro Garnacho and Jeremy Doku rather than go in. for tackling too early and embarrassed. But there are a number of centre-backs and defensive midfielders here too, showing how important it is even in a passing attack like that of Man City or Arsenal to have players at the back who can press and rearrange the defense before finding the free man.
On the field map, Doku and Saka are on the wings, but it is Pau Torres who has almost the entire left half. Note Antonee Robinson’s importance to Fulham on the left, where he leads the league in forward passes as well as forward passes, and the peculiar rotation where Rodri has the most forward carry in front of the box, while Ruben Dias leads the pack up front. of him.
When you put it all together, you get a scoreboard that reflects the many different ways players can help their team move the ball up the field. Unlike shot-based statistics, which give all the glory to the goalscorers, forwards can help capture the importance of unsung heroes like Pascal Gross, an all-rounder who Roberto De Zerbi has called “one of the best players I’ve had in my career”. because “he can play everywhere on the field.”
Is it the definitive ranking of the best players in the Premier League? Of course not. But it’s a pretty respectable list for very basic stats that don’t include any information on goals, shots, completion percentage, turnovers, off-ball positions, or defense of any kind. That’s what a good sports currency should do.
Progressive functions are easy to understand. They lend to players in every position, not just the guys in the box. They relate to the very nature of the game, which is about moving the ball away from your goal and towards the opponent’s goal, so it’s no surprise that they tend to reward good footballers.
What makes a good football player? More than anything else, it’s that… (score on Jonah Hill again) … they advance the ball.
(Main photo: Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
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