2) Maye must hold up against a quality Denver pass rush
Pass defense for Drake Maye hasn’t been great through two postseason games, allowing 10 sacks and 31 pressures on 66 snaps. MVP candidate Maye has fumbled six times in the two games, and Denver’s run is as dangerous a team in the league as it bullied Josh Allen in four games last week, even with a big play allowed. Broncos rookie Nik Bonitto vs. Patriots LT Will Campbell is Denver’s potentially exploitable matchup after Campbell struggled against Houston. Maye’s road to the regular season may have been easier than that of other quarterbacks, but he has faced two tough defenses in the playoffs — and the Patriots’ offensive output has been hot and cold. They need consistent production from wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry, Maye’s top two targets. Both have scored in the playoffs, but they have combined for just 10 catches for 125 yards on 18 targets. Kayshon Boutte has stepped up in the passing game and Rhamondre Stevenson has seen his role grow, but for the Patriots to put together a successful drive, they may also need contributions from wide receivers Demario Douglas and Kyle Williams. The Broncos lost five turnovers to Buffalo last week after reaching just 14 regular season games, with no more than two games prior. The Patriots know they can’t waste possessions and fall into an early hole, or Denver’s pass rush could be even more of a problem.
3) Do the Patriots have an edge in the run game?
On the surface, the Patriots appear to have the advantage on the ground. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has been held in check for two postseason games, but Stevenson has been very efficient, and Maye is a weapon as a scrambler and a uniquely designed runner. The Broncos’ run defense was one of the best in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 91.1 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. But the Bills rushed for 183 yards last week in Denver, averaging 5.1 yards per clip, and mobile quarterbacks have given Denver some problems this season. On the other hand, the Broncos have had to create a running game since JK Dobbins suffered a foot injury and rely most of the time on rookies RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin, along with Nix’s blunder. With Nix out, facing a struggling New England lineup that is allowing 67.5 rush yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry in two playoff games, the challenge seems tough, even with Denver’s stout offensive line. However, there is hope that Dobbins could return after being sidelined since Week 10. Getting him back would be a huge development in both the running and passing games, even if Harvey has been their primary receiver this season. The Broncos may have limited weapons in the pass rush with several receivers battling injuries, so adding another veteran weapon in Dobbins — who was on pace for a 1,300-yard rushing season before his injury — would make everyone’s job easier, especially Jarrett Stidham’s toughest tests of his career.