Paraguay’s match against Australia on Day 3 of the World Cup group stage appears to be a direct shot for second place, but the new tournament format could change everything.
In the old days, this match would have been an edge-of-your-seat thriller, with only the top two teams progressing to the knockouts. However, in the new format, both teams will likely advance regardless of the outcome.
The permutations are numerous, but neither team can overtake the USMNT at the top of Group D. A win for Australia or Paraguay will guarantee second place, while a draw will see them both progress – with Australia in second place.
Australia enters this game with some optimism after a surprise 2-0 win over Turkey, but their momentum was halted by a loss to the USMNT. Paraguay, on the other hand, was hard to read accurately, initially struggling against the US before rallying to defeat Turkey.
The unusual circumstances of this game mean we may have to wait until the World Cup qualifiers to see just how good (or bad) these teams really are.
Compete against the world.
Safety will likely take precedence when Australia and Paraguay meet.
Paraguay showed character to hold on to the lead and claim victory against Turkey on Day 2, despite seeing Miguel Almirón sent off shortly after the break.
Manager Gustavo Alfaro will be hoping that game was a truer reflection of his side’s quality and that they were simply stunned in their opener against the hosts. Australia are another opponent to beat, but Paraguay may not see the need to kill in this one.
Australia manager Tony Popovic was criticized for being too cautious in the loss to the USA but is unlikely to go all out in San Francisco knowing a draw allows his side to finish second.
Goal difference difference: Although the head-to-head is used as the first port of call for separate teams finishing on the same points, if the two sides have drawn, goal difference is still taken into account. Should this game end in a draw, it is Australia who would take second place with a GD of 0 to Paraguay’s -2. History favors Australia: In five previous meetings (all friendlies), Paraguay have never beaten Australia, losing two and drawing three. The most recent meeting between the two took place in 2010.
Miguel Almirón is suspended for Paraguay after becoming the first player in World Cup history to be sent off for covering his mouth during a match against Turkey.
Paraguay will have to do without Almiron and is expected to replace him with Mauricio on the wing.
Diego Gomez and Matias Galarza could be fit to start despite knocks, with Alfaro likely to line up his side in a familiar-looking 4–4–2.
Paraguay’s predicted lineup against Australia features Gill in goal, with Cáceres, Gómez, Alderete, and Alonso in defense.
Nestory Irankunda could earn a start for Paraguay.
Mathew Leckie is a major doubt after picking up an injury, giving Australia manager Tony Popovic an excuse to reintroduce Nestory Irankunda from the starting lineup.
Regardless of the selection, Popovic will stick to his preferred 5–4–1 system, prioritizing defense in this match.
Australia’s predicted lineup against Paraguay features Beach in goal, with Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, and Bos in defense.
Location: San Francisco, United States Stadium: Levi’s StadiumDate: Thursday 25 June / Friday 26 June Kick-off: 22:00 ET / 19:00 PT / 3:00 BST (26 June) Referee: Clément Turpin (ARG)
MORE: Complete list of worldwide broadcasters for Paraguay vs Australia
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