Can you imagine the Dodgers shunning long-term deals? It’s not shocking; the club has consistently avoided contracts beyond six years, except for rare cases like Shohei Ohtani’s ten‑year pact and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12‑year deal, both under special conditions.
While fans think the club hoards elite talent, it often steps aside when the market heats up. Juan Soto secured a 15‑year deal with the Mets, Bryce Harper inked 13 years with the Phillies, Trea Turner got 11, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried chose the Yankees, and Dylan Cease headed to Toronto.
When a player’s long‑term offer stalls, the Dodgers swoop in, a tactic insiders call “hanging around the backboard.”
Kyle Tucker exemplified the approach last season. After fielding multi‑year proposals, including a big offer from Toronto, he entertained short‑term talks with the Mets and Dodgers, who ultimately sealed a four‑year, $240 million guarantee with opt‑outs after years two and three.
Woo’s scoop suggests the Dodgers will repeat that play on Skubal this winter. They’ll likely stay in the mix but won’t chase a massive long‑term contract. In my view, the Dodgers’ strategy is shrewd, especially as CBA talks loom.
The sport’s financial horizon remains hazy. Owners push a salary cap that players resist, and Mark Walter’s recent asset sales add pressure. Still, Woo believes the Dodgers can present Skubal with a compelling average‑annual value despite the turmoil.
MLBTR forecasts a nine‑year, $425 million guarantee for Skubal, echoed by other analysts. Passan reports the pitcher is aiming for that kind of deal, leaving room for another club to step forward.
Reports say the Mets will meet Skubal next week, hoping to lock a contract before the December 2 lockout. Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes expects a meeting soon, and the AP notes the Mets, Dodgers, Padres and three unnamed teams are on the table. The New York Post adds the Blue Jays to the mix.
Only time will reveal which club wins the bidding war. If any rival offers a longer pact than the Dodgers, they could clinch the pitcher. The Blue Jays gave Dylan Cease a seven‑year deal last winter and still need rotation depth, having chased stars like Ohtani and Soto.
The Padres have been aggressive, landing Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts to hefty contracts. After Peter Seidler’s 2023 passing, the franchise changed hands to José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones, sparking rumors of renewed spending. Their rotation is thin as most starters hit free agency.
The Mets, who signed Soto to 15 years, have been cautious with pitchers. David Stearns never extended a free‑agent arm beyond three years at either the Mets or Brewers. Yet his deeper pockets this time could prompt a shift in philosophy.
Owner Steve Cohen might greenlight a big Skubal deal even if Stearns hesitates. Cohen worked directly with Scott Boras on the Soto contract and previously negotiated a $315 million pact for Carlos Correa that fell through on a physical. Skubal’s representation by Boras could tip the scales.
Passan notes the Red Sox and White Sox aren’t in the mix. Boston’s recent big‑ticket signings total $390 million, likely below Skubal’s market value, and they appear uninterested in Freddy Peralta. The White Sox, a dark horse, operate in a large market but have never exceeded a $75 million guarantee for a pitcher.
Will the White Sox finally break their $75 million ceiling for a pitcher like Skubal?