Can a shortstop who hit 31 homers truly anchor a division? The White Sox shocked the league, posting 84 wins and clinching a Wild Card berth before falling to the Guardians in five games. Next season they’ll eye the division crown, banking on a potent lineup that includes shortstop Colson Montgomery, whose 2026 campaign sparked debate.
At 24, Montgomery appeared in 153 games and logged 638 plate appearances. He led AL shortstops with 31 long balls, 87 RBIs and a .206 isolated slugging metric. That raw power kept him in the everyday mix despite a modest 91 wRC+. Defensively, he added +10 Outs Above Average and ranked in the 94th percentile for Fielding Run Value per Statcast.
FanGraphs valued Montgomery at 2.8 WAR, placing him around the median for qualified shortstops and suggesting a solid starter. Yet he struggled to connect, posting a .197/.282/.403 slash line and a league‑worst 35.6% strikeout rate among all qualified hitters. Only teammate Munetaka Murakami posted a close 35.4% rate.
Both power hitters, Murakami offset his swings‑and‑misses by walking 16.6% of the time, lifting his OBP to .347 and delivering a 129 wRC+. Montgomery’s walk rate lingered at 8.5%, near league average, and his on‑base percentage stayed under .300, rendering him a below‑average hitter despite the 31 homers.
Montgomery’s rookie half‑season in 2025 looked brighter. Over 284 PA he posted .239/.311/.529 with a 130 wRC+, matching this year’s walk rate but striking out 6.4% less. A 29.2% strikeout rate, while still high, was tolerable given his 21 homers and strong defense (+7 DRS, +6 OAA), earning him 2.7 fWAR in less than half the games he logged in 2026.
In my view, Montgomery’s 35.6% strikeout rate remains risky despite the 31 homers and 2.8 fWAR. If injury or power regression hits, his offense could tumble from subpar to unusable, turning him into a 1.0‑1.5 fWAR role player even with elite defense.
Reducing strikeouts will demand smarter swing choices. His chase rate nudged up from 30.5% to 32.4%, landing in the 32nd percentile, and contact on those pitches fell 6.8%. The chase‑swing metric jumped from 19.8% to 28.4%, and he swung at “waste” pitches 9.2% of the time versus 3.8% a year earlier. Pitchers responded by throwing fewer zone pitches, and Montgomery chased them.
He must improve against four‑seam fastballs. Last season he added +2 Run Value versus that pitch, but it plunged to –13 in his sophomore year. He hit just .154, the second‑worst rate among pitches seen at least 5% of the time, while his strikeout rate rose 11.2%, hard‑hit rate dropped 8.7%, and slugging fell 200 points. Since four‑seamers comprised over 20% of his looks, mastering them is essential.
Today he resembles a Joey Gallo type—massive power, low walk rate, and superior defense—but the Sox hope to avoid Gallo’s decline. Restoring his 2025 form would be a step forward, and with arbitration not arriving until 2029, the team has a few seasons before his strikeouts become prohibitive. He likely won’t command more than $5 million until at least 2030.
A trade for starting pitching remains plausible, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco suggested in the Offseason Outlook. Chicago could flip Montgomery for arms, given they already own Sean Burke, Davis Martin and Anthony Kay. They added Luis Castillo at the deadline, but his 31‑inning stint flopped, leaving the rotation still in need of depth for a deeper playoff push.
The Sox also possess this year’s No. 1 overall pick Roch Cholowsky, projected to take over shortstop duties by late 2027. He may hand Montgomery most of the 2027 season, but eventually the role will pass to the highly‑rated defender. Regardless of how long his tenure lasts, Montgomery must adjust to keep his power translating into everyday value. Can the Sox lock down a reliable shortstop before his arbitration year?