Picture a scenario where Manchester City never employed “sham contracts” to assemble a squad that clinched three Premier League crowns, an FA Cup and three EFL Cups.
If City took the trophies, someone else had to lose.
Not only the runners‑up or cup‑final losers.
The ripple effect reaches missed Champions League spots, relegation scares and lost Premier League cash.
Between 2009 and 2018, thirty‑five other clubs competed in the top flight.
Each could argue they were financially short‑changed.
City still deny any fault and are fighting the verdict, but the facts show they breached rules, inflating sponsorship revenue by £830 m plus £90 m in expenses.
Strip that money away and the whole competition picture changes.
When Sheikh Mansour bought the club in 2008, it was a far cry from today’s powerhouse.
After finishing fifth in 1991‑92, City’s best league finish until then was eighth in 2004‑05.
The Abu Dhabi influx, described by the Premier League’s independent commission as a “disguised funding scheme”, lifted sponsorship income from a Stoke‑City level in 2008‑09 to overtaking Manchester United.
City landed fifth in 2009‑10 and have never slipped outside the top four since.
Did that cash lock other clubs out of the Champions League and other successes?
This piece isn’t calculating potential compensation for any club.
Nor does it claim a team would surely have avoided relegation or qualified for Europe.
It simply explores the chance that a very different City side would have taken the field without the Abu Dhabi cash infusion.
Future earnings from trophies, sponsor bonuses or extra prize money are excluded.
It also omits any salary boosts players might have missed had their clubs performed differently.
The focus stays on domestic financial impact:
Lost league‑placement prize money
Foregone Champions League earnings
Europa League payouts
Loss of Premier League status
Consequences of cup‑final defeats
What Manchester’s ‘super‑profit’ deal with owners has yielded so far
Were any current City players signed during the charge period?
How City amassed £1.17bn, while others may have lost £844m
Overall, the damage to other clubs is estimated at £844 m.
£188.2 m in league‑placement money
£349.7 m in relegation costs
£217.8 m in missed Champions League prize money
£88.3 m linked to domestic cups and the Europa League
We derived these numbers from published prize‑money data for the relevant seasons.
For league money, every team finishing below City is assumed to have missed one place’s payment.
Relegation cost equals the minimum Premier League value for the next season minus the parachute payment received.
Champions League figures were taken from City’s earnings, then the Europa League share of the affected clubs was subtracted.
City also collected prize money themselves during that era.
In total, the club pocketed £1.17 bn across competitions:
£812.3 m from the Premier League – prize money plus broadcast revenue
£363.4 m via the Champions League
£900,000 for the FA Cup win
£300,000 for three EFL Cup victories
The biggest losers: How Spurs could have missed out on £120m
“We have lived through a period of deception,” former Tottenham boss Mauricio Pochettino said last month.
“No punishment can ever repair what was done.”
His point rings true – Spurs finished just outside the Champions League spots in four of the eight seasons City were in Europe (only one under Pochettino).
Across those four missed seasons, City earned £148.2 m from the Champions League while Tottenham collected £29.9 m from the Europa League.
The 2014‑15 campaign produced the biggest gap: City were second in the league and earned £71.2 m for reaching the Champions League semi‑finals, whereas Spurs got only £17.7 m, a £53.5 m shortfall.
Spurs also trailed City six times in the table, a cumulative prize difference of £6.6 m.
North London benefitted in 2013‑14, qualifying for Europe only because City beat Sunderland in the EFL Cup final.
That earned Spurs £5.1 m from their 2014‑15 Europa League run, which wouldn’t have existed without City’s success.
All told, the net financial loss for Tottenham totals £119.9 m.
Did City’s EFL Cup win cost Liverpool £37.8m?
The 2015‑16 EFL Cup final proved decisive for Liverpool’s European hopes.
Klopp’s side fell to City on penalties after a 1‑1 draw, sending the Europa League spot to West Ham United.
Liverpool finished eighth, missing out on any European qualification.
Had Liverpool lifted the cup, they would have entered the Europa League, offering a clear financial comparison.
Manchester United won the 2016‑17 Europa League, pocketing £37.8 m, including a £26.6 m market‑pool share.
While we can’t say Liverpool would have replicated United’s triumph, the clubs are of comparable stature for a benchmark.
The market‑pool share might have been slightly lower if both Liverpool and United had been involved.
Adding Premier League place money of £10.6 m – Liverpool finished below City in all nine relevant seasons – brings the total impact on the Merseyside club to £52.3 m.
City’s sole FA Cup win in the scrutinised period came in 2010‑11 against Stoke, a £900,000 prize gap, with the runners‑up heading into the Europa League.
Everton missed a Champions League spot once in 2013‑14 and fell just below the final Europa League place four other times.
The Champions League slot is valued at £32.6 m – Manchester City’s £39 m earnings minus Everton’s £6.4 m Europa League share.
Missing the Europa League four times cost the Toffees £23.2 m.
Add £10.6 m in league prize money and Everton’s total loss reaches £66.4 m, ranking them third most affected.
Did two relegations cost Hull City £99m?
Parachute payments soften the blow, yet relegation still delivers a hefty financial hit.
Could clubs that finished 18th argue they might have survived but for City’s dominance?
There are a couple of ways to look at it.
First, City took at least four points off every 18th‑placed side except Birmingham.
Second, City assembled a squad far beyond what its finances should have allowed – could they otherwise have been caught in relegation battles?
This isn’t to claim City would have been relegated; it’s simply a matter of chance.
Subtracting the first season of parachute payments gives a net figure.
Hull suffered relegation twice, costing the Tigers £93.78 m.
They finished below City four times, adding £5.2 m in placement money.
That leaves the East Yorkshire club as the second‑most impacted at £99 m.
Swansea sit fourth with £63.1 m – £54 m from relegation and £9.1 m in placement money over seven top‑flight seasons.
Newcastle’s 2015‑16 relegation cost an estimated £60.4 m, including £7.9 m in placement money.
Norwich (£43.8 m), Wigan (£39.6 m), Burnley (£31.1 m), Bolton (£26.4 m) and Birmingham (£25.1 m) also fell from 18th place.
Alongside Tottenham, four other clubs missed Champions League football by one place during City’s qualifying years.
Chelsea felt the biggest hit, finishing fifth in 2017‑18.
City earned £79.2 m reaching the Champions League quarter‑finals, while Chelsea’s Europa League win brought £39.4 m, leaving a £39.8 m deficit.
Everton (5th in 2013‑14, £32.6 m shortfall) and Arsenal (5th in 2016‑17, £22.1 m shortfall) also just missed out.
Manchester United escaped major financial loss, finishing fifth in 2015‑16.
City’s Champions League run that season yielded £42.6 m; United’s Europa League win added £37.8 m, a £4.8 m gap.
The Premier League awards no specific prize for the title itself.
Broadcast revenue is distributed on a merit basis according to final league position.
It follows a 1+1 model: the 20th‑placed club receives the base payment, 19th gets it twice, 18th three times, and so on.
Thus, the only prize‑money difference for a runner‑up in any of City’s three title seasons is a single extra base payment.
Could any side argue they might have finished one spot higher?
Premier League place values surged alongside broadcast deals during City’s offending years.
In 2010‑11 a place was worth £755,881; by 2016‑17 it rose to £1.94 m.
If compensation were considered, Everton, Liverpool and Stoke City would lead with £10.7 m each, having finished below City in all nine seasons.
West Brom and West Ham total £9.9 m, with Swansea at £9.1 m.
At the low end, seven one‑season clubs – Blackpool (£756,756), Portsmouth (£800,424) and Huddersfield (£1.93 m) among them – have modest claims.
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October 2026
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