The Miami Dolphins have returned to respectability, winning five of their last six games. Now Tua Tagovailoa will try to do something he’s never done: win in the cold.
The Hawaiian native has never won a game in temperatures at or below 40 degrees, going 0-5 in his career. The temperature in Pittsburgh Monday night is now forecast at 18 degrees, with wind gusts of 16 mph, according to AccuWeather.
Tagovailoa brushed aside the weather talk.
“It’s football, bro,” Tagovailoa said, via the South Florida Sun Sentinel . “It is what it is. We’ve got to play them in Pittsburgh, whether it’s minus-20 degrees, whether it’s 20 degrees. We’ve got to play football.”
It’s already reached the point in the calendar when 40 degrees would be comfortable for most people living in cold climates. Sunday’s heat and wind chill will make it feel nice under there in Pittsburgh.
Wins and losses aren’t everything at QB, but the Dolphins’ cold-weather record with Tua under center is ugly. Via Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post Tagovailoa is 0-5 when the temperature is below 40; 1-6 when it’s 45 degrees or colder; 2-8 in 50 or under; and 4-13 below 55 degrees. The five games Tua has lost in sub-40 degree weather: at Buffalo, at Tennessee, at Buffalo, at Kansas City, at Green Bay.
Last week’s win over the Jets in New York was 41 degrees at kickoff, giving Tagovailoa his first win in sub-46 degree weather.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has already reduced the offense in his winning streak. Tagovailoa has thrown for fewer than 175 yards in four straight games (all wins), the longest of his career. In the series, Miami leads the NFL with 192.3 rushing yards per game and 10.5 rushing first downs. Given the conditions expected on Monday night, expect more of the same from Miami.
Going less doesn’t bother Tua. Only victories matter.
“I’m happy,” Tagovailoa said. “As long as we’re getting wins, that’s all that matters in this league. Now, would I like to throw the ball more? Sure. But if running the ball is what’s helping us win games now, I don’t see why we’d stop it.”
The Dolphins’ playoff hopes hang by a thread — less than a 1% chance, according to Next Generation Stats. But Miami can build on some positives heading into 2026. Tua getting that cold monkey off his back Monday night would go a long way toward closing the narrative for next year and beyond.