• November 14, 2024 3:25 pm

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Matchday 2 of the 2024-25 Champions League produced many goals and surprises as we continue to learn about the new format of the tournament.

Big wins for Barcelona, ​​Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund and Brest on Tuesday were followed by shock defeats for Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid as the 36-team table got under way.

The results meant too Athletic’s The projections – powered by Opta data – saw many teams experience a drop in their projected points figures and odds of reaching the last 16. Here we take a look at some of the sides that will be affected, with Matchday 3 less than three weeks away.

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Champions League 2024-25 predictions: Each team’s chances of reaching the knockout stages


Brest

Estimated total score for MD 1: 8 (31st in projection table)

Estimated total score after MD 1: 9 (25th)

Estimated score after MD 2: 12 (18.)

Brest has been one of the users of the new Champions League format. Having been placed in Pot 4 before the draw, the older system could see them face two or even three tough opponents in the group stages (ask Slavia Prague in 2019-20, who were drawn with Barcelona, ​​​​Dortmund and Inter Milan).

However, they have instead made their European debut with a 2-1 win over Sturm Graz at home and a superb 4-0 thrashing of Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg in hostile territory. Early predictions saw them as a bottom six side, but they have quickly established themselves in the early knockout picture with two excellent performances.

Tougher tests await, but Brest appear to have improved their chances of at least reaching the knockout stage (71 percent chance now, up from 35 percent before Matchday 1).

Remaining fixtures: Bayer Leverkusen (H), Sparta Prague (A), Barcelona (A), PSV (H), Shakhtar Donetsk (A), Real Madrid (H)


Bayer Leverkusen

Estimated total score for MD 1: 14 (6th in the projection table)

Estimated total score after MD 1: 16 (5th)

Estimated score after MD 2: 17 (1.)

Bayer Leverkusen is one of seven perfect teams in the Champions League. Xabi Alonso’s side started their campaign in style, beating Feyenoord 4-0 in Holland before beating AC Milan 1-0 on matchday two.

The reigning Bundesliga champions are not favorites to win the tournament, but their impressive start has already seen their projected points tally rise by three. They had a 58 percent chance of going directly to the last 16 after their win over Feyenoord, and that number has now increased to 71 percent. Their clash with Brest later this month should be a treat for all neutral spectators.

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Leverkusen’s fellow Bundesliga side Borussia Dortmund also deserve a mention after hammering Celtic 7-1 on Matchday 2 to maintain their perfect start. After being ranked seventh in the pre-tournament calculations, they now sit second with 17 projected points and a 72 percent chance of finishing in the top eight.

On the other hand, however, RB Leipzig have dropped from 14th ahead of the start of the league campaign to 28th in the latest predictions after winners pulled away in the final 10 minutes against both Atletico Madrid and 10-man Juventus. Elsewhere, Bayern Munich’s expected points dropped from 16 after Matchday 1 to 14 after their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa.

Remaining fixtures: Brest (A), Liverpool (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Inter Milan (H), Atletico Madrid (A), Sparta Prague (H)


Arsenal

Estimated total score for MD 1: 14 (8th in the projection table)

Estimated total score after MD 1: 14 (9th)

Estimated score after MD 2: 16 (5th)

A 0-0 draw with Atalanta was far from good for Arsenal, but any doubts about their ability were shattered when they cruised past Paris Saint-Germain – arguably their toughest opposition in the league – on Matchday 2. finishing in the top eight (56 percent, up from 42 percent before Matchday 1) and winning the entire game (nine percent now from six before Matchday 1) both received a boost.

Opta’s latest predictions suggest that Arsenal could equal or better the points tally of Liverpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Home games against Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Zagreb could help them improve their goal difference, which could prove crucial and help rest players ahead of their final league game on January 29 – with Manchester City visiting the Emirates on February 1 in the league.

Remaining fixtures: Shakhtar Donetsk (H), Inter Milan (A), Sporting Lisbon (A), Monaco (H), Dinamo Zagreb (H), Girona (A)


(Ryan Pierse – UEFA/Getty Images)

Aston Villa

Estimated total score for MD 1: 10 (22nd in the projection table)

Estimated total score after MD 1: 12 (16.)

Estimated score after MD 2: 16 (10.)

After Newcastle United’s final fightback last season, Aston Villa’s eyes were on how they would adapt to the Champions League. A convincing 3-0 victory over Young Boys on matchday one boosted hopes and boosted their chances of direct qualification for the last 16 from 11 per cent to 19 per cent.

Few could have foreseen what followed this week, however, as another Jhon Duran brace secured Villa a memorable 1-0 victory over Bayern Munich in a repeat of the 1982 European Cup final.

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On the back of those results, Unai Emery’s side have favorable games either side of Juventus’ visit to Villa Park in November, leaving them with just a five per cent chance of relegation.

Remaining fixtures: Bologna (H), Club Brugge (A), Juventus (H), RB Leipzig (A), Monaco (A), Celtic (H)


Real Madrid

Estimated total score for MD 1: 17 (2nd in the projection table)

Estimated total score after MD 1: 18 (1.)

Estimated score after MD 2: 16 (6th)

With something of an injury crisis and doubts about how their new-look forward line will run, Real Madrid have had a poor start. Wednesday’s 1-0 loss to Lille was the fourth time the team had dropped points in their first 10 games and cut their chances of retaining the Champions League trophy to 13 percent.

However, there is an air of inevitability around Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid in the Champions League and it was also their first loss since January, ending a 36-match unbeaten run. Their predicted points tally is still higher than Bayern, Barcelona, ​​Juventus and rivals Atletico, who Benfica won 4-0 on Matchday 2. Diego Simeone’s men are currently in 16th place in Opta’s prediction with 13 points. .


(Michael Regan – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

However, Real Madrid’s job will not be much easier with games against three of the seven perfect teams so far (Dortmund, Liverpool and Brest). They will be desperate to avoid finishing outside the top eight with a Madrid game scheduled for February 9, just days before the first knockout round (February 12 and 13).

Remaining fixtures: Dortmund (H), AC Milan (H), Liverpool (A), Atalanta (A), Red Bull Salzburg (H), Brest (A)


What about the others?

  • All hope is not lost for Celtic just yet. Despite a 7-1 loss against Dortmund on matchday two, Brendan Rodgers is still tipped for 11 points, giving them a 62 per cent chance of making the play-offs. Dortmund was arguably their toughest opponent in the league, with games against struggling RB Leipzig, Dinamo Zagreb and Young Boys to follow.
  • Liverpool and Juventus have both risen rapidly thanks to perfect starts. After starting with the ninth-best projected points tally, Arne Slot’s side now sit fourth, just behind Bayer Leverkusen, Dortmund and Manchester City, and have a 44 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight. Juventus, on the other hand, is in seventh place and has a 46 percent chance of going straight into the last 16. Liverpool’s toughest remaining fixtures are against Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid in November, while Juventus face Villa in November and Manchester City in December.
  • Speaking of City, they remain favorites to win their second Champions League title, with a 22 percent chance according to Opta’s latest forecast. Pep Guardiola’s men thrashed Slovan Bratislava 4-0 on matchday two after a 0-0 draw with Inter to open their campaign, while impressive wins for Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund saw the Bundesliga pair narrowly overtake the 2023 Champions League winners in the predicted score.

(Main photo: Damien Meyer/AFP/Getty Images)


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